Human intuition fails us in areas like statistics, probability theory, and comprehending exponential growth. Multiple studies – including Nobel-prize winning studies – confirm how poor our intuition is in these areas. But our intuition serves us very well when it comes to detecting danger.
This makes sense, considering it wasn’t always practical or predictive of success to grasp complex math so we could invest and compound the interest over many years. But it has always been essential for life to recognize danger, even in ways we don’t consciously understand (microexpressions, eye gaze, body language, etc.).
The moral, and the invitation to improve critical thinking skills, is to drop your ego and your story about how you might be viewed, and obey visceral signals of danger. When it comes to predicting possible futures, rely on data and not your “rational” intuitions.